• Glasgow and Edinburgh move up the rankings in the latest iteration of PwC’s Good Growth for Cities Index – but Aberdeen slips six places
• All three major Scottish cities in the Index track above the UK average for house-price-to-earnings ratio and skills (16-24 and 25+)
• Across the rest of the UK, house-price-to-earnings ratios is a factor which has seen the largest decline as people are increasingly priced out of living in cities
• But public polling shows Scots place more value on other indicators of economic prosperity, including income distribution
• Raising prosperity across the UK is needed more than ever, says PwC, as research shows growing inequality of access to housing, jobs and education remains a key issue across regions and cities.
PwC’s Good Growth for Cities Index shows two major Scottish cities have improved their performance in the rankings of UK cities against last year’s index – and outlines exactly which indicators of economic prosperity Scots place most value in.
Of the three Scottish cities included in the analysis, Edinburgh climbs six places to ninth overall while Glasgow moves up four places to 31st. The report also highlights Scotland’s capital as the fourth most improved city on the Index.
Aberdeen, meanwhile, is relatively the weakest of the cities north of the border, slipping from 31st place last year, to 37th place.
The Demos-PwC Good Growth for Cities Index ranks 51 of the UK’s largest cities (generally considered those with populations of at least 350,000 people), plus the London boroughs, based on the public’s assessment of 12 economic measures, including jobs, health, income, safety and skills, as well as work-life balance, housing, travel-to-work times, income equality, high street shops, environment and business startups.
The Index weights each variable based on the UK public’s opinion on the relative importance of the measure in question.
While all three Scottish cities perform above the UK average when it comes to the ratio of house-price-to-earnings and skills among 16-24 year olds and over-25s – with Edinburgh and Glasgow also tracking above the UK average for work-life balance – the report highlights that Scots place more value on other indicators measured by the Index.
The most important of the 12 indicators for Scots are income distribution, income, safety and work-life balance – indicating that those living north of the border are prioritising personal wealth, a fair economy and personal wellbeing.
In comparison, house-price-to-earnings ratios and skills indicators are weighted as less important for Scots than the UK average.
Jason Morris, Regional Market Leader at PwC Scotland, said:
“The latest Good Growth for Cities Index demonstrates a tale of three cities in Scotland. While all three are united in their overarching strengths including skills and the ratio of house-prices-to-earnings, when we look at performance across the indicators in the context of what members of the public place the most value in, the picture looks slightly different.
“Strength in skills and the relative affordability of housing demonstrate that we have the foundations laid to enable Scotland to attract new talent and retain its existing strong skills base. However, there is a need to address the public priorities for Scots highlighted in the Index which underline some key disparities across our cities. Our polling showed that Scots place importance on income, equality of income distribution, safety and work-life balance.”
Measuring against the priorities chosen by the public, Scottish cities tend to perform below the national average, with the exception of Edinburgh. Similar to last year’s Index, all three Scottish cities performed below the UK average on health and new business. Glasgow also tracks below the UK average on income and, alongside Edinburgh, owner occupation; while the unemployment rate in Aberdeen is higher than the UK average.
Jason Morris, Regional Market Leader at PwC Scotland, continued:
“All three cities perform below average on health and new business – highlighting challenges across the board in terms of economic prosperity.
“The prime opportunity is for local authorities, businesses, devolved and national governments to work together to address skills shortages around emerging tech and digital, as well as energy transition and financial services, whilst investing in the fabric of our cities and addressing key challenges around health inequalities and new business – in order to create a fair and thriving Scottish economy.”
Predicted growth in Scotland
The report sets out expected economic growth for Scotland in 2024 and 2025 – predicting it to have the fifth and sixth strongest economic growth of the UK’s 12 nations and regions, respectively.
The Index predicts positive economic growth for Scotland, at 1.1% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, which is broadly consistent with expected UK average growth of 1.0% and 1.7%, respectively. It highlights that this growth will be driven by a concentration of activity in sectors expected to thrive in the coming years, including ‘professional, scientific and technical’ and ‘human health and social work’ (expected to grow by 1.8% and 0.9% respectively in 2024).
Despite moving down the overall Index rankings, the analysis predicts Aberdeen to experience the strongest economic growth of the Scottish cities in the Index in the coming years – 1.2% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025. This is mostly driven by projected growth in the ‘professional, scientific and technical’ sector.
While Glasgow and Edinburgh are expected to perform similarly in terms of economic growth in the next two years, the Index notes that Edinburgh will have the lowest rate of all three Scottish cities in 2024, but a higher rate in 2025 – driven by a projected improvement in the outlook for the ‘finance and insurance’ sector, which represents more than a quarter (25.8%) of economic activity in the capital.