Investors are refreshing, diversifying and growing their portfolios, says Findlay Anderson
Ask anyone, and they’ll likely have an opinion about the UK energy industry. Most of the current narrative is heavily politicised around tax changes (four in recent times) and presumptions against oil and gas. On the other hand there is an ongoing debate about whether the UK can really meet its net zero targets and the urgent changes needed to help us get there.
But beneath the noise, there is a section of the industry that has been quietly (until now) getting on with driving its own change and rewriting its next chapter. The UK oil and gas industry has for decades acted as an accelerator for a world-leading service sector with thousands of companies driving new technologies and carrying the flag for UK industry around the world. New-start companies have grown into reputable family businesses, which have become household names and in some cases PLCs. And behind many of these technology and service vehicles are the private equity houses and venture capitalists investing in technologies, driving acquisitions and enabling growth.
Thanks to the Covid-hangover and market pressures, deal-making in the past few years has been subdued. Initial three- or four-year investment plans in many cases shifted to seven- or eight-year involvement with investee companies. That has meant a short-term reduction in capital available to redistribute in the markets. But it has also meant that private equity houses have been actively reassessing their portfolios, resetting the exit clocks and recalibrating the growth strategy. And we are now seeing increasing evidence of deal activity as those strategies move into the execution phase.
Private capital investors are taking a range of steps to refresh, diversify and grow their portfolios, aligned to the energy transition. Oil and gas supply chain businesses are aggressively diversifying their target markets, leaning into renewables, nuclear and downstream grid-level opportunities.
And faced with the need to pursue that next chapter of growth, many companies are expanding internationally, acquiring technologies and increasingly tendering for projects in overseas markets. This is all unlocking new deal activity and it feels like there is renewed energy in this part of the sector.
Speed, strategy and commitment are key themes here, and private equity houses are usually founded on these values. For the legal profession, the same rings true. Advisors need to act quickly in an ever-changing market, providing valuable counsel to help clients evolve and grow. But they also need to be willing to walk with them through both challenge and opportunity. A prime example of that was the recent landmark win for US-based private equity house, Lime Rock Partners, where Gilson Gray’s litigation experts successfully defended one of the single biggest damages claims in Scottish legal history. And on the operational front we are increasingly seeing portfolio businesses looking for help to diversify internationally whilst managing risk through growth.
Our team’s experience in the energy sector and the corporate finance space means we are well-placed to support firms looking to do business both in the UK and overseas.
Findlay Anderson
Partner, Head of Corporate
Email: fanderson@gilsongray.co.uk
Leading Scottish property portal ESPC has announced the return of its unique accreditation course for solicitor estate agents, following on from a hugely successful first year in 2023.
Created and run in conjunction with The Law Society of Scotland and Edinburgh Conveyancers Forum, the SPC Property Practice certification is a unique qualification offered to solicitor estate agency firms signed up to ESPC’s Charter, and is the first of its kind in the UK.
Following on from the first year of the course, 40 new delegates have already signed up for this year’s intake, which will begin on 24 April 2024, with graduation in December 2024.
The qualification provides ESPC’s Chartered member firms with the opportunity to get ahead of potential UK-wide estate agency regulation due to come into force this year. ESPC spoke with the relevant Westminster parties in the early stages of designing the syllabus, to ensure it could provide maximum value alongside enabling qualified solicitor estate agents to attain the highest levels of knowledge, service and client care, going above and beyond the levels offered by traditional estate agents.
The syllabus was created by ESPC in collaboration with The Law Society of Scotland and the Edinburgh Conveyancers Forum, and will be delivered by six trainers including chartered surveyors, lawyers, solicitors and marketing experts. The subjects covered include Estate Agency; Marketing and Branding; Building Construction; Conveyancing for Non-Conveyancers; Legal; and a new addition to this year’s course, Ethics, delivered by The Law Society of Scotland’s Property Law Committee, to drive home the solicitor estate agency proposition and its importance within the Scottish property industry.
The SPC Property Practice qualification ties into the ESPC Charter, launched in November 2022, which offered ESPC’s member firms the opportunity to sign up to Chartered status and ensure that they offer their customers the very highest standards of care and expertise. The SPC Property Practice qualification further enhances the standards customers should expect from Chartered firms, with the accredited solicitor estate agents committed to offering a better experience to every one of their customers and clients.
It is planned that the course will be rolled out to other SPCs in Scotland, making this higher standard of service for property buyers and sellers available across the country.
Ashley McInulty, Head of Member Services at ESPC, commented: “Following on from a truly fantastic first year of the SPC Property Practice qualification, we are incredibly proud to be bringing the course back for a second year for a whole new cohort. It is truly a mark of the commitment that our member firms have to offering the very best service to their customers that so many more have signed up to undertake this certification. At ESPC, we remain dedicated to raising consumer standards in the property industry, and the SPC Property Practice certification, alongside our Chartered status option, can reassure customers that they are in the very best of hands when they appoint an ESPC solicitor estate agent to handle the sale or purchase of a property. Once again, we are delighted to be running the course in collaboration with The Law Society of Scotland and Edinburgh Conveyancers Forum, and we are so excited to see what the year ahead holds for our new students.”
Reacting to the latest inflation figures published this morning, David Bharier, Head of Research at the British Chambers of Commerce said:
“Today’s figures confirm inflation is continuing to slowly head in the right direction. That’s good news for both consumers and businesses.
“However, a lot of uncertainty remains among the firms we speak to. Our most recent Quarterly Economic Survey showed almost half of firms in fact expect their prices to rise over the next three months. Labour costs are cited as the main driver, but increasing political and global uncertainty is becoming a key factor.
“Businesses will be keen to see how this data translates into changes on interest rate policy. More than a third of SMEs we surveyed at the start of the year have seen increased borrowing costs because of the current interest rate.
“Business conditions more generally remain challenging, and firms need to see a clear long-term vision for the UK economy from politicians.”
Record levels of Edinburgh residents are feeling positive and say they’re satisfied with life in the Capital.
According to the city’s 17th annual Edinburgh by Numbers – a statistical snapshot of the Capital collated by the Council – feelings of ‘worthwhile’ are the highest they have been for a decade.
Echoing the findings of an Edinburgh Partnership survey last year, which revealed 93% of residents are happy with life in the Capital, improved levels of resident happiness and life satisfaction have been recorded by Edinburgh by Numbers despite a small increase in anxiety levels.
Alongside personal wellness scores, the health of Edinburgh’s environment and economy is also on the up – with the data confirming Scotland’s Capital has the highest percentage of residents who consider the climate emergency to be ‘urgent’.
It comes as greenhouse emissions drop by 37.9% in Edinburgh as part of concerted efforts towards net zero by 2030, with more than half of city journeys under two miles now being made by walking or cycling, according to the findings. Public transport satisfaction rates have also hit 86%, which is significantly above the Scottish average.
Pointing to the resilience and growth of the Capital’s economy, Edinburgh by Numbers data suggests job opportunities in the city remain some of the best in the UK and that unemployment rates have more than halved from 6.3% to 2.6% in less than 10 years. In continued signs of Edinburgh’s post-covid rebound, Edinburgh’s economy is listed in the data as the UK’s most productive economy outside of London, at 32.7% higher regional GVA per person than Glasgow.
Visitor numbers are also starting to return to pre-covid levels with a noticeable increase in visits from October to December, making Edinburgh second in the UK for overnight visits after London. This complements the aims of Edinburgh’s sustainable tourism management plan which involves targeted Forever Edinburgh activity to promote the spread of tourism across the seasons.
The data suggests there are over 170,000 students across all education levels but overall, Edinburgh’s population is aging. And while poverty levels are lower than national averages, tackling poverty and reducing inequality remains a key Council priority and a slight increase in relative poverty has been recorded following the cost-of-living crisis.
Council Leader Cammy Day said:
“This year’s Edinburgh by Numbers paints a feel-good picture of a successful, growing Capital city where people really enjoy living and working.
“It’s great to see so much evidence of people living well, feeling happy and caring about climate change here in Edinburgh. The data points to good news for business, for jobs and for tourism and I think it’s fair to say that Edinburgh’s economic – and environmental – outlook is healthy.
“There has been a joint effort in recent years to work together as one city on everything from poverty to climate change, supporting the Festivals and our parks, ensuring Edinburgh remains a special, welcoming and unique place to live.
“Of course, with this good news comes the other side of the same coin: the pressure of complex population changes on our core services and on the people who live and work here. The recovery of tourism provides a welcome boost to our economy, but this means greater use and upkeep of facilities and isn’t always accessible for everyone. Likewise, a thriving economy does not mean that every resident is able to benefit equally, and we face a growing housing emergency and pressure supporting our people and our planet.
“That’s why we’re set on becoming the first city to introduce a visitor levy when the legislation comes into force. It’s also why the Council budget we set in February prioritises poverty, climate, and key services for residents. I’m pleased to see the Edinburgh by Numbers findings demonstrate just how vital this is.
“We’ve still got work to do, but we’ll continue to do everything in our power to reach our ambitious goals to eradicate poverty and become net-zero by 2030. We need the city with us though, and the success depends on everyone’s participation and will be the result of collective efforts.”
Sarah Boyd, Managing Director of Lothian Buses, said:
“It’s really encouraging to read that satisfaction with public transport in Edinburgh sits at an average of 86%, which is significantly above the Scottish average of 58%.
“Our teams work incredibly hard to deliver sustainable, affordable, and reliable bus services for all, so it’s particularly heartening to read that overall satisfaction is so high.
“We are continuing to grow our network following a strong performance throughout 2023 which saw Lothian deliver for more than 110 million customers – an increase of 17% on the previous year.”
Apex Hotel picked up the Sustainable Business accolade at last night’s Springboard Awards which took place at a glittering ceremony at The Intercontinental Hotel in London on 11th April.
The hotel group was up against stiff competition with The Hilton, Leonardo Hotels, Sodexo and Wilson Vale also on the short list. Apex Hotels demonstrated a long term, companywide commitment to sustainable practices and policies which shone above the rest.
The group has put in place a comprehensive Carbon Action Plan designed to propel the organisation to NetZero and has committed over £1 million to reducing carbon emissions. The initiative has already yielded some impressive results including recycling 60% of all waste with zero landfill, cutting over 600,000 plastic and glass bottles from waste through a new partnership with Belu Water and changing all room amenities to refillable Antipodes crafted from reused ocean-bound materials, which are fully recyclable.
The hotel group has also streamlined task and reduced waste by introducing a new Paperless Check-in and Invoicing system, as well as a new guest App to improve efficiency. A new Building Management System (BMS) has also yielded a 15% reduction in electricity consumption at Apex Waterloo Place in Edinburgh, with plans to roll out BMS across all its London properties.
Averil Wilson, Apex Hotels Managing Director said: “We are absolutely delighted to win the Sustainable Business accolade at the Springboard Awards last night. This is the culmination of a lot of hard work to embed sustainability at all levels of the organisation.
Carbon reduction is a major priority for the group going forward, and we know our guests’ buying choices are increasingly influenced by sustainable practices. It is important they feel reassured we are doing everything we can to create a cleaner more sustainable environment.”
About Apex Hotels
Apex Hotels is a family-owned 4-star hotel group with chic city centre and rural properties. The company owns eight city centre hotels in some of the UK’s most popular destinations – London, Bath, Edinburgh, Glasgow, and Dundee – and one rural hotel perfectly placed in Pitlochry.
Apex Hotels was founded by Scottish entrepreneur Norman Springford who opened his first property in 1996, Apex Grassmarket Hotel in the heart of Edinburgh’s Old Town. Since then, the group has grown into one of the UK’s leading independent hotel groups, attracting tourists and corporate guests from across the globe.
Apex Hotels first country property, Pine Trees Hotel in Pitlochry, was acquired in July 2023, and represents the first phase of a portfolio expansion strategy targeting popular UK destinations.
As well as offering consistently high standards for business and leisure guests, Apex Hotels has a committed approach to environmental and sustainable tourism practices and is one of the few independent hotel groups to hold Silver Green Tourism Award’s in all city centre hotels.
The findings from Burges Salmon’s ESG report emphasise how businesses should be engaging with their supply chain to meet their current and future mandatory disclosure obligations
As businesses continue to develop the application of robust ESG standards into everyday operations, efforts could be undermined by compliance failures within their supply chain. This is according to new research published today by independent UK law firm Burges Salmon.
In order to gauge how UK companies are reporting on the full ESG value chain of their operations, Burges Salmon surveyed over 360 business leaders across the Energy and Utilities, Technology, Built Environment, Transport and Healthcare sectors, to shed light on how prepared businesses are to meet their supply chain-related ESG disclosure obligations, set to be further tightened by a raft of new legislation, including the EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive.
The report – Supply chain ESG disclosure – is your business ready? – reveals that 32% of all businesses surveyed are completely unprepared to meet their ESG supply chain disclosure obligations and among those, only 29%, fewer than 3 in 10, believe their organisation fully understands the legislative and regulatory landscape governing ESG corporate disclosure.
Michael Barlow, partner and Head of ESG at Burges Salmon, says: “UK companies must first prove their commitment to ESG by complying with a range of mandatory disclosure obligations. Ensuring business partners meet ESG standards requires investment, resources and constant monitoring, and it is clear from our research that most companies still have some way to go.”
Notably, the report shows that it is large companies that are not as prepared as they should be, with only 45% of respondents confirming that they have a dedicated team that deals with ESG related matters. Similarly, only 43% of respondents in these companies say their organisation fully understands the legislative and regulatory ESG risks their supply chain may give rise to.
By contrast, evidence from the research shines a light on small and medium sized businesses as those able to provide greater levels of influence in successfully meeting their ESG compliance obligations, with 75% of respondents from this group claiming their organisation fully understands the legislative landscape.
“A small organisation might have more limited disclosure obligations and can be quite on top of it. For large organisations, obligations are more complicated, particularly if they operate across different jurisdictions. What’s more, if ESG teams are too remote from day-to-day operations, there is a danger that ESG remains on the periphery of business priorities” adds Barlow.
With research insights from across five sectors, the findings seem to position the Energy and Utilities sector firmly as the leader of the pack, with 68% of those surveyed saying their company’s ESG commitments and those of its supply chain are well aligned, and two thirds of respondents also claiming to have someone at senior level monitoring ESG policies, procedures, and compliance with regards to the supply chain.
James Phillips, partner and Head of Energy at Burges Salmon, comments: “In terms of the larger established energy and utilities companies, I think there is a high level of sophistication, expertise and understanding of what it is they need to be doing, and how to approach implementation.”
That is not to say the sector isn’t facing challenges and the data points to a number of areas where sharper focus is needed – in fact, 46% of respondents in the sector say their company has developed a code of conduct in respect of ESG matters that is adhered to by the supply chain, and only 47% say their organisation has detailed procedures in place to assess the ESG compliance of prospective supply chain companies.
Conversely, the Healthcare sector is the one at most risk of non-compliance and the least prepared of all sectors surveyed. Indeed, almost a third of respondents, 31%, say their organisation doesn’t fully understand the legislative and regulatory ESG risks their supply chain may give rise to, and over a quarter, 27%, say robust verification of the ESG data provided by the supply chain isn’t always taking place.
Meanwhile, research data from other sectors surveyed show that some are in a good position to meet corporate disclosure obligations in relation to their supply chain, but more work needs to be done. In fact, only 22% and 14% of respondents from the Technology and Built Environment sectors respectively say their supplier contracts have been adapted to enable them to gather the required ESG information, and nearly 25% of those surveyed in the Transport sector say their organisation doesn’t fully understand the legislative and regulatory ESG risk its supply chain may give rise to.
Highlighting Scotland as the UK nation that is most prepared, the report goes on to explain that it is factors such as the size of the Energy sector, particularly renewables, low carbon industries and the traditional oil and gas sector, that is accelerating its transition, which are all driving this upward trend.
Edinburgh-based Malcolm Donald, a partner in Burges Salmon’s Edinburgh office says: “Through the conversations I’ve had with clients based in Scotland, I’ve noticed that much of the ESG focus has always been on the environment, but there’s certainly much more focus on social and governance now and I think that has been driven by internal stakeholders. The other thing that clients are recognising, is that it is no longer just about what they do, but it’s about making sure that their supply chain is doing the same thing in a demonstrable way.”
Leveraging its market leading ESG expertise, Burges Salmon has developed a number of practical tools to consolidate all ESG guidance, legislation and other useful resources into interactive and intuitive platforms. Amongst those is the firm’s ESG Corporate Disclosure Tool, where clients can seamlessly navigate between the law, ESG disclosure obligations, best practice and training guidance, to help them identify potential risks and unlock the opportunities so they can derive real value from it.
Founded by John Martin in 1999, Halspan recently marked an unforgettable milestone as we celebrated 25 years of business.
During a week-long get together and celebration in March 2024, we invited colleagues past and present from all over the world to unite in Scotland to collaborate, learn and celebrate together!
An intense yet rewarding few training days culminated in a spectacular gala dinner and celebration at the prestigious Surgeons Quarter in Edinburgh – a fitting location for a celebration as grand as ours!
Including our very first backers, suppliers, distributors and loyal customers, we were thrilled to be in the same space as some of those who have played a pivotal role in shaping Halspan. We welcomed friends from Poland, Dubai, Cyprus, Germany and elsewhere to Edinburgh to celebrate Halspan’s remarkable 25 years as an industry leader.
Guests enjoyed perusing the eye-opening exhibits of the Surgeons’ Hall Museums then a Champagne Reception before gathering for a very warm welcome from our Managing Director Andy Wallace. Andy then had the pleasure of announcing a number of awards in recognition of the incredible achievements of some of Halspan’s key players. This year we celebrated:
- Rhod Williams – 25 Years of Service
- Andrew Davies – 5 Years of Service
- Ashok Malav – 5 Years of Service
- Emma Westbrook – 5 Years of Service
Following the accolades, our founder and Halspan visionary, John Martin, took to the floor, to share a very personal tale of his captivating journey from the confines of a humble home office to the global powerhouse that Halspan has become!
From the 1990s to this day, John Martin’s forward-thinking outlook and leadership has been instrumental to Halspan’s success and as he spoke, we couldn’t help but feel inspired by his vision and determination.
Now, as we look towards the future, we aim for another 25 years filled with the same unwavering passion, relentless innovation and achievement.
To round out the evening and bringing everyone together on the dance floor, the wonderful band ‘The Riffreshers’ delivered tune after tune after tune! A stellar act, indeed and the perfect way to conclude a celebration of 25 years of Halspan.
The Capital is once again searching for a worthy recipient of the coveted Edinburgh Award, with nominations for the 2024 award opening today (April 15).
Since 2007, the Edinburgh Award has celebrated individuals who have made a truly unique contribution to the city and brought our capital to national and international attention. Previous recipients include exemplary musicians, bestselling authors, ground-breaking scientists, human rights activists, and high-level sportspeople.
The Edinburgh Award allows its citizens to see the individuals who have made a real and lasting impact on the city.
The recipient of the last Award in 2023 was Nicola Benedetti, which recognised her contribution to Edinburgh as a world-renowned musician and her stewardship of the Edinburgh International Festival since October 2022. Benedetti was presented with an engraved Loving Cup from the Lord Provost and had her handprints set in stone at the City Chambers quadrangle.
Edinburgh has five weeks to cast nominations for the 2024 award, before a recipient is selected by a panel chaired by the Lord Provost.
The Lord Provost of the City of Edinburgh, Robert Aldridge has urged individuals and businesses to nominate someone for the Award:
“I’d like to begin by paying tribute to Professor Peter Higgs who sadly passed away last week. Professor Higgs received the Edinburgh Award in 2011 and the Freedom of the City in 2014 for his indelible contribution to science. He lived and worked in the Capital for over sixty years and as Professor of Theoretical Physics at the University of Edinburgh his pioneering work helped shape our fundamental understanding of the universe.
“Edinburgh has been a global force in many different fields for over two centuries, and this is down to the character, achievement, and excellence of our citizens. The Edinburgh Award represents an opportunity to celebrate an individual who makes Edinburgh the inspiring city we see today. By nominating someone you can help us give them the recognition and praise they deserve.
“As Lord Provost I’m inspired by the ways in which the citizens of Edinburgh calmly persevere and look out for one another, and this speaks to the very heart of our city.
“Edinburgh, its reputation, and its enduring global appeal is down to its people. Now in its 18th edition, the Edinburgh Award, needs the help of our communities, citizens, and businesses to come together and find a worthy recipient. I’d urge anyone who has an idea in mind to nominate an individual before the window closes next month.”
Nominations open today (April 15) and close at 12 noon on Friday May 24, 2024.
To find out more and submit your nomination please visit our website.
The extraordinary stories of two Queen Margaret University graduates who entered higher education from a non-traditional route are being highlighted in a new national campaign by Universities Scotland.
‘40 Faces’ aims to champion the diversity and success of widening access programmes from universities across Scotland, telling the stories of students and graduates from underrepresented backgrounds.
Karen Rennie and William Torrie, former students at Queen Margaret University (QMU), are just two of the inspirational stories showcased in the campaign.
Karen Rennie joined QMU from a low participation school programme, Lothians Equal Access Programme for Schools (LEAPS). She said: “I knew that I wanted to be in a role where I could care for people and support others to live a life that was meaningful to them.
“I decided that if I was going to university, I would try to get the best degree course possible, which is why I chose Queen Margaret University to do the BSc (Hons) in Nursing.
“I knew from day one of my course that I’d made the right decision. Not only did I love the practical side of nursing, but I also developed a passion for nurse education, theory and research.
“The lecturing team encouraged me to strive for every opportunity to excel in my career – supporting me to attend conferences, write articles for publication and believe in myself. My career developed quickly because the lecturing team took time to support my individual needs and career ambitions. I will be eternally grateful for the personalised support that Queen Margaret University offered me.”
40 Faces launches with only six years left for Scotland to reach the fair access 2030 targets, originally set by the Commission for Fair Access in 2016 and supported by the Scottish Government and by universities themselves.
Universities have made major strides towards ensuring 20% of Scottish-domiciled entrants are from the 20% most deprived neighbourhoods, as well as hitting interim milestones in 2021 and introducing the most progressive admissions policies in the UK, in support of this goal.
When asked what more needs to be done to reach Scotland’s 2030 target to equalise access to university, Karen said: “More career and life skills input in schools. I was fortunate to have a fantastic mentor in my life (my dad!) who put a lot of time and effort into my career ambitions and decisions. I was always encouraged to pick the right course (both life and academia) for me and only me!”
Since graduating from QMU with a BSc (Hons) Psychology degree, William Torrie is now on an accelerated career path as Vice President of Legal Engagement at Barclays, which he attributes to the skills and confidence he developed while studying at the East Lothian university.
He said: “I had a false start elsewhere; dropping out and returning to education a year later – this time at QMU. I had another disastrous first year, but with support from the faculty under strict conditions, I was able to continue to second year. Without the faculty’s patience and understanding, I wouldn’t have developed the tools I needed to succeed in my education and take charge of my future.”
The success of students like Karen and William is testament to the extraordinary role universities can play for those who face significant barriers to accessing higher education.
The stories behind each of the ‘40 Faces’ serves as a reminder of the importance of this agenda and a rallying call to all stakeholders involved to refocus on working together for its achievement.
Claire McPherson, Director of Universities Scotland said: “Our universities are committed to widening access, however they cannot achieve this alone. With our 40 Faces campaign, Universities Scotland want to galvanise the sector and Scottish Government towards the 2030 widening access target.
“Universities offer students opportunities to achieve their dreams of securing higher education and the skills and career opportunities that follow, while also strengthening their self-belief, building confidence and offering a life-changing experience which cannot be found elsewhere.”
Responding to the latest ONS Trade figures published this morning, William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said:
“It is difficult to draw concrete conclusions from a single month’s data, but there are signs of a nascent improvement in import and export volumes as global demand slowly recovers.
“The Office for Budget Responsibility’s recent analysis also indicated we should see a modest improvement in net trade this year. But data for the last three months of UK trade, overall, remains challenging.
“Geopolitical factors also continue to cloud the picture for global trade and could well weaken projected growth in the coming 18 months.
“Further measures are required by policymakers to nurture the green shoots we are seeing. The UK needs to ensure the Exports Strategy is delivering where it needs to, particularly around digital trade and across a wider range of UK economic sectors.
“The Government’s new Critical Imports Council needs to focus on improving supply chain security and diversification with business and industry.
“Today’s data also illustrates the need to keep trade costs as low as possible. This is major concern for British traders given imminent new border charges on certain food and plant imports from the EU, and increasing regulatory compliance burdens on cross-border trade.”
The UK Trade Picture In Detail
February’s figures showed an improvement in month-on-month UK goods and services trade, both in value terms and after inflationary effects are removed. The increases occurred for both imports and exports.
This comes in the week that the World Trade Organisation (WTO) forecast stronger global merchandise trade volumes in 2024 and 2025 compared with 2023 – predicting a 2.6% rise in volumes this year, and 3.3% in 2025.
As inflationary pressures abate, global consumer demand for goods and services is likely to generate trade growth over the next two years. But geopolitical uncertainty remains the biggest unknown factor around the forecasts.
Goods Imports
During February, import volumes rose by 0.3% excluding inflation (but declined by 0.4% in cash value terms). There was a 3% rise in EU imports volumes which was offset by a 3.3% drop from the rest of the world. Imports of medicines and pharmaceutical products from the US declined. There were higher imports of ships from Italy and mechanical machinery from Germany. Food imports from the Netherlands fell, particularly in meat, following new border requirements being introduced for EU imports on 31 January.
Goods Exports
Overall volumes rose by 1.7% during February – with a 3.4% rise to the rest of the world but a more static picture for the EU. In value terms, UK exports to the rest of the world increased by 4%, while overall UK goods exports increased by 0.9%. Aircraft exports to France, and mechanical machinery exports to Germany were noticeable areas of improvement.
Services
On UK services trade, after removing inflationary effects, imports rose by 0.5% in February with exports rising by 0.4%. A similar picture emerged for the actual values over the same period.
